It's a lot to take in

I write this today from Taipei. Yes, the breakaway republic! Except not really any more.

I was trying to think about what I should write with respect to what it was like to be in Beijing for the Olympics, and where China as a whole seems to be as we near the first decade of the 21st century. The Games have yet to conclude, but we're close to the end now so it's appropriate to offer some reflections as to some of the greater significance that lies behind what has transpired over the past couple weeks (and really years for those actually keeping track).

Probably the best place to start is by saying that like many others have already said or otherwise written, I believe we are witnessing a true watershed moment for China. By this I mean the country will continue to undergo noticeable and important changes in its social, political, and economic fabric. In my eyes the tougher question is not whether change will take place but to what degree and in what fashion. I am by nature an optimist, but I try my hardest to mesh that quality with a healthy dose of pragmatism. While I envision a new dawn for China, its sunrise as a newly-defined world power will come slowly and gradually.

This argument is key, in my opinion. Given the still authoritarian flavor of the CCP's rule (see Nicholas Kristof's brilliant and disquieting piece on the farce that is Beijing's 'protest zones': http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/17/opinion/17kristof.html?_r=2&ref=opinion&oref=slogin&oref=login), it comes as no surprise that change (do we call it progress? democracy? ) will come at a turtle's pace. So it therefore becomes so easy - and even more tempting - to pooh-pooh the lack of reform under Hu Jintao's 'Harmonious Society', but to lambaste alone is to perilously miss the mark. Yes, when the blatant gimmicks and canards surface from Zhong Nanhai, it is both justified and necessary to bring them to light and criticize them. And criticize them we will. But we must remember that as Americans we are no longer blameless, and that we carry less currency today in our reprimands than ever before (or at least in recent history). We've never really been blameless, but we have been a source of near-perfection when it comes to that whole argument over basic human rights and allowing democracy to spread and flourish peaceably. But with buzz words like 'Gitmo' and 'Guantanamo', our sudden confidence in casting the first stone comes to a lurching hault. And for shame because argument - about treating prisoners with dignity and refusing to resort to torture - used to be a gimme! Now we can only murmur our tut-tutting, if that. This topic alone is worthy of a post of its own (and maybe in due time). But the greater point is this: much as before, the United States has to tread carefully with China and not only because they hold and control much of our debt. For negotiating purposes we must come to recognize that it is not enough for us to simply question China's involvement, say, with the Sudanese government. Yes, it is reprehensible that China has ties with a government guilty of genocide. But the Chinese have a response. Who are you, America, to be pointing fingers. "What of your close, hush hush relations with Saudi Arabia? What of your forays in Latin America and SE Asia decades ago? How legitimate were those governments?"

Man! Arguing can be frustrating sometimes and boy, history can be a real mother...

What I also wanted to say is that it's obvious that the Summer Olympics were meant to serve as much for symbolic purposes than for the sports, medals, and grandeur that surrounded them. We've always known this and the international stage the Games set for Tokyo in 1964 and Seoul in 1988 already affirmed this. So what has it meant for China? What will it mean?

For starters, I say it's really too early to tell. I know, what a cop out answer. But really, think about it. The true test has yet to come. With the whole world watching these past few weeks, of course China is going to put on its best face (and interestingly it hasn't in some ways, which I can get to in a later post). But what happens when the lights dim, the country delegations board their planes for home, and the stadiums fall silent once more. Will the roar of cheering fans and the din of awed spectators be replaced by a reinvigorated Chinese mass demanding more reform and liberty? What of the Tibet protests? The post-earthquake China? Once again I am reluctant to see sweeping demands, protests, or changes enacted but one can't help but wonder what will fill the new void.

One quick predictions on China and its relations with Taiwan:
1) China/Taiwan relations - This will get better with time, as it has already since March and the election of Guomindang President Ma Yingjeou. This guy means business and although his approval rating is at a lowly 35% (thanks in large part to a sputtering Taiwanese economy, along with the rest of the world), he is a man of action and it shows. Direct charter flights across the Formosa Straight are now in effect, and tourism laws have been relaxed between the island and mainland. Businessmen are being encouraged by new tax incentives on both sides and there's more to come with opening up shipping via ports and waterways between the two. This is all very promising stuff. China will never grant Taiwan the independence it once sought - and most people understand and recognize this fact. Fortunately, those in power in Taiwan get this too (that important link has been missing for the past 8 years under previous leadership). Ma Yingjeou is above all else practical. He understands the economic and political importance of maintaing and building ties with China, but he also sees that he cannot do so as the expense of what most in Taiwan hold dearest: their culture and way of life. He said in a recent interview with Time magazine that he now views China as both a threat and an opportunity. This is healthy thinking that even one-ups how our current president once felt(note: Bush, prior to being elected in 2000, stated that he viewed China as a competitor only and that his administration would treat it as such. Fortunately he has not followed through on this claim). We'll see what happens but things are looking up.

Ok so I meandered a bit, but my time is short at this internet cafe so I'll be going now. More soon.